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A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

 
지은이 : Laplace
출판사 : Dover
페이지수 : 208
ISBN : 0486288757
예상출고일 : 입금확인후 2일 이내
주문수량 :
도서가격 : 5,000원
적립금 : 150 Point
     

 
This classic introduces the concepts and uses of probability theory. It쟡emonstrates, without the use of higher mathematics, the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government, and many other areas. It also shows how쟳cientists can express complex ideas in simple terms.
"This is an awesome book. It is hard to believe Laplace wrote this in 1816; it seems so modern. If you've ever worked on problems like "take two urns, A and B, the first containing four
white and two black balls ..." you'll be interested to know these problems all go back to this book. Laplace said "Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation", and he shows it here. I like the discussion of how many judges should be assigned to a case, and what proportion of them should be required to vote guilty for a guilty verdict to be returned. Laplace shows how to minimize expected loss on this problem (although he, somewhat unrealistically, assumes that each judge's opinion is independent of the others)."


"I recommend this book to people with a science background that want a little light reading. This will probably not be very appealing to the layman."
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